Geopolitical crises, rising tariffs, and an increasing number of conflict zones… in 2026, uncertainty continues to intensify. And yet, the M&A market is currently reaching record levels. Is this a bubble, or simply a catch-up effect?
The experts at AURIS Finance, a specialist M&A advisory firm, share their insights.
“Trees do not grow to the sky,” warned Warren Buffett just months before the 2008 financial crisis. This well-known maxim among equity investors raises a timely question: could it now apply to the M&A market?
Looking at global figures, the outlook appears strong and the upward trend continues.
According to data compiled by Dealogic, global M&A activity surged by 41% year-on-year to reach $4.81 trillion in 2025—the second-highest level ever recorded after 2021.
Instability: the new normal?
This record level marks a return to pre-pandemic volumes. However, not all indicators are positive—far from it. The end of an era of “benign globalisation” is giving way to a world where risk is omnipresent.
Risk has become multifaceted, affecting all corporate functions. Climate-related risks are now compounded by geopolitical tensions, with direct implications for supply chains. Companies must also navigate evolving trade policies, including tariffs introduced under the administration of Donald Trump, while the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence is challenging the relevance of existing business models.
A shift towards larger transactions
In theory, such a high level of uncertainty should dampen M&A activity. Yet transactions continue to rise. A closer look, however, reveals a notable shift: while the number of deals is declining, the size of transactions is increasing, mechanically driving overall market value upwards.
In practical terms, 2026 is characterised by fewer deals, but of significantly larger scale. Among these landmark transactions, a phenomenon is re-emerging—particularly in the United States: the return of public takeover bids, sometimes in more aggressive forms.
Towards a resurgence of hostile takeovers?
In a tense market environment marked by valuation gaps and heightened performance expectations, some acquirers are adopting increasingly assertive strategies, approaching shareholders directly without prior management approval.
In January 2026, Paramount Global attempted to push forward its strategic ambitions by extending its offer related to Warner Bros. Discovery, in a broader context of industry transformation driven by streaming competition involving players such as Netflix. This episode highlights the growing use of offensive strategies to secure strategic assets.
Artificial intelligence: a new valuation driver
Beyond financial dynamics, another factor is reshaping the M&A landscape: the exponential development of artificial intelligence.
Its adoption is now a key lever for operational optimisation—but not only that. By enhancing productivity, customer insights and commercial performance, artificial intelligence is having a significant impact on company valuations.
From an investor perspective, two categories of companies are emerging: those fully integrating artificial intelligence—sometimes redefining their entire business model—and those lagging behind. For the former, valuations may increase by 20% to 50% compared to companies that have yet to adopt these technologies.
Our experts by your side
In an uncertain and volatile environment, the M&A market remains robust. However, its underlying structure is undergoing profound transformation. The rise of large-scale transactions, the return of more aggressive strategies such as hostile takeovers, and the growing valuation gap between companies based on their technological maturity are reshaping market dynamics.
In this context, identifying the right targets, anticipating risks and gaining a deep understanding of sector-specific dynamics are more critical than ever.
Our specialists are sector focused and support you throughout your disposal, acquisition and financing projects: https://auris-finance.fr/en/auris-finance/
For any enquiries, feel free to contact us: https://auris-finance.fr/en/contact-us/
