What does the M&A market have in store for us in 2025? After a lacklustre year in 2024, transactions could pick up again in 2025, particularly in France. Here are some explanations and an analysis from the experts at AURIS Finance, an M&A consultancy.
2024 was a year dominated by megadeals and generative AI, with transactions characterised by a significant increase in large-scale operations. According to a report by PwC, the value of transactions in Europe rose by 6% over the year, while the number of transactions decreased. The year was marked by several significant deals. Notably, in September, Danish transport and logistics services provider DSV, ranked third in the sector, acquired Schenker, the logistics subsidiary of German rail operator Deutsche Bahn, for €14.3 billion. In France, a significant development was the merger of BNP Paribas and AXA’s Investment Managers division, valued at €5.1 billion, with the transaction expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025.
Generative AI stands out
Another notable feature is the rise of AI and its significant presence in financing rounds. At a time when valuations remain high and are struggling to meet the expectations of funds, which are often faced with liquidity issues, companies utilising AI are demonstrating notable success. In France, Mistral AI has raised multiple rounds of financing, resulting in a valuation exceeding €5.8 billion. On both the European and global stage, generative artificial intelligence has emerged as a compelling investment prospect, attracting interest from both venture capital funds and large companies that recognise its significant potential for transformation.
The number of transactions remains high
In 2024, large-scale operations contributed to an overall increase in the value of M&A transactions. However, the number of transactions decreased by 16% in the first half of the year and by over one year in the EMEA region. It should be noted that 2021 and 2022 were peak years, with the total value of M&A transactions reaching $5,800 billion in 2021. Analysts are now forecasting $4,000 billion in M&A transactions in 2025. At the end of the covid health crisis, more than 17,000 transactions were recorded in Europe. In 2024, the number of deals reached 14,000, which is lower than the post-health crisis level but still higher than the levels seen over the last ten years in Europe.
New opportunities
Notwithstanding the considerable uncertainty surrounding the economic and geopolitical landscape, 2025 is anticipated to witness a significant volume of M&A transactions, particularly within the European region. While the regulatory framework may impose certain constraints, the innovation ecosystem continues to demonstrate resilience, facilitating the growth of start-ups. For their part, large companies are aware of the urgent need to adapt to the new economic paradigms and are looking to acquire or merge with innovative companies in order to expand their markets.
Our experts at your service
In a rapidly changing market characterised by the emergence of generative AI and post-crisis adjustments, companies require strategic support to navigate a complex environment. AURIS Finance’s experts are at your side to identify growth opportunities, secure financing and optimise synergies.
